The final numbers have been counted. Both the Beaumont MLS and Mid-County MLS have released their December sales numbers. What you see may shock you.
For starters, look at the months supply of inventory. Both Beaumont and Mid-county have approximately a six month supply of homes available. If you listen to the experts, a six month supply of homes is a healthy balance. Its not tipped in favor of the buyers- as it is when there is an excess supply and its not tipped in favor of the sellers- as it is when there is a shortage of supply.
Another statistic worth note: In December 2006 the months supply of inventory in Mid-county was 3.7 months and in Beaumont it was 5.0 months. During this time there was a shortage of inventory in our area. As a result in 2007 prices started to increase. It was a classic sellers market where demand outpaced supply so sellers could demand more for their homes. In December of 2007, the months supply of inventory was 6.0 months in Beaumont, and 6.2 in Mid-county. Prices continued to increase through-out much of 2007.
When 2008 began the months supply of inventory had started to increase. Throughout much of 2008 the months supply of inventory rose slightly from 7.0 months up to about 8.0 months supply. With the increase in inventory there was a downward pressure on some home prices. Certain neighborhoods in Southeast Texas began to have an over supply of homes. While Southeast Texas as a whole didn't face a buyers market, some sellers had to come off there list prices more than they had the year earlier.
You can do your own research for any time frame that peaks your interest. Check months supply of inventory for any Texas metropolitan area at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M. If you really want to know where prices are headed months supply of inventory can be the best predictor.
One other statistic worth note: The average sales price in December was down from 2007. That tells us the more activity was happening on the entry-level homes than the move-up homes.
Here's a good take away from the December inventory numbers: Both Mid-County and Beaumont's home inventory supply is in balance at the present time. We have a healthy market. As the government puts more incentives in place for home buyers to buy a home, we may see the inventory in our area start to drop below the six month level. When it does prices tend to go up. If you are thinking about buying a home, you may never find a better time. With interest rates at all time lows, prices off their record peak, and the $7,500 tax credit on the table for someone who hasn't bought in the past three years, you might wonder what you are waiting for. We have a healthy housing market. Why not take advantage of it before the sellers are in control again.