Local REALTORS heard from the "real estate expert" today. Dr. Mark Dotzour, the Chief Economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M was in Beaumont to talk about the "Economic Outlook for Residential Real Estate in 2009".
Not only is he a very smart guy, but he's funny. If you ever have a chance to attend one of his speeches, I recommend you go. Since the talk today was for local REALTORS only, I'll share a few key points with you.
- Every one of the 25 metropolitan areas in Texas experienced job growth from Oct. 2007- October 2008.
-
Texas led the nation in job growth.
-
If Texas was a nation, we would rank ahead of Russia and India. Just behind Spain and Brazil.
-
If you are going to own a home for three years or more, there has never been a better time to buy than now.
-
We may never see interest rates this low again in our lifetime. (30 year fixed rates today are below 5%)
-
Generally, the 30 year fixed rate is 1.5% higher than the 10 year Treasury. Today the 10 year Treasury is about 2.25%. That said, rates should be around 3.75% but they aren't because no one wants to invest in mortgage backed securities at the moment.
-
Housing starts will probably be the lowest they've been since World War II. This is a good thing because it will help reduce the excess inventory that is out there.
-
Months supply of inventory is the best predictor of the future direction of home prices.
-
Buying a home right now is smarter than buying gold as an investment.
-
The economy is likely to hit bottom before the end of the year and a rising stock market will signal the end.
Dr. Dotzour has a plan that he thinks would help the country get out the current housing crisis. You can see the video in the video files on the Real Estate Center Website.
Comments