Hi. I'm Diane McNelis, Award winning Texas Realtor(R) with Coldwell Banker Southern Homes. Selling and Buying homes in Southeast Texas can be complicated. I'm here to help. When we work together I become your advocate. My goal is to get you the best deal possible and to exceed your service expectations. On my blog, I share tips and strategies for selling and buying homes in Southeast Texas.

National Housing News

2021 Home Values in Southeast Texas

Supply and Demand

The supply of homes for sale in Beaumont and Lumberton remains very low.  With less than a 4 month supply of homes for sale in many parts of Southeast Texas and building costs being at an all time high the demand for homes remains robust.  

Interest rates continue to drive home buying demand.  The shortage of supply continues to press prices upward.  What will happen in 2021?  

What Does 2021 Have in Store for Home Values?

What Does 2021 Have in Store for Home Values? | MyKCM

According to the latest CoreLogic Home Price Insights Report, nationwide home values increased by 8.2% over the last twelve months. The dramatic rise was brought about as the inventory of homes for sale reached historic lows at the same time buyer demand was buoyed by record-low mortgage rates. As CoreLogic explained:

“Home price growth remained consistently elevated throughout 2020. Home sales for the year are expected to register above 2019 levels. Meanwhile, the availability of for-sale homes has dwindled as demand increased and coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreaks continued across the country, which delayed some sellers from putting their homes on the market.

While the pandemic left many in positions of financial insecurity, those who maintained employment and income stability are also incentivized to buy given the record-low mortgage rates available; this is increasing buyer demand while for-sale inventory is in short supply.”

Where will home values go in 2021?

Home price appreciation in 2021 will continue to be determined by this imbalance of supply and demand. If supply remains low and demand is high, prices will continue to increase.

Housing Supply

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the current number of single-family homes for sale is 1,080,000. At the same time last year, that number stood at 1,450,000. We are entering 2021 with approximately 370,000 fewer homes for sale than there were one year ago.

However, there is some speculation that the inventory crush will ease somewhat as we move through the new year for two reasons:

1. As the health crisis eases, more homeowners will be comfortable putting their houses on the market.

2. Some households impacted financially by the pandemic will be forced to sell.

Housing Demand

Low mortgage rates have driven buyer demand over the last twelve months. According to Freddie Mac, rates stood at 3.72% at the beginning of 2020. Today, we’re starting 2021 with rates one full percentage point lower than that. Low rates create a great opportunity for homebuyers, which is one reason why demand is expected to remain high throughout the new year.

Taking into consideration these projections on housing supply and demand, real estate analysts forecast homes will continue to appreciate in 2021, but that appreciation may be at a steadier pace than last year. Here are their forecasts:What Does 2021 Have in Store for Home Values? | MyKCM

My Final 2 Cents

In Lumberton and Beaumont there's still a limited number of homes for sale for the great number of purchasers looking to buy them. Home prices will continue to rise, although probably at a more moderate pace than they did in 2020.  Until the supply of homes begins to increase, which is expected later this spring/summer, prices will keep going up. 

If you are thinking of selling a home in Southeast Texas, let's connect.  Waiting until spring might not be the best decision this year.  

Sincerely,

Diane


Southeast Texas Home Values Forecast to Increase in 2021

$8,000 gain in Value  

The average home in the State of Texas had an increase in value in 2020 of approximately $8,000.  If you are thinking home prices in Southeast Texas are getting too high you might want to read what the economists are forecasting. Home values are expected to increase again in 2021 and 2022.  In fact, the first year of a new President's term in office has been the best of the four for the housing market.  

Homeowner Equity Increases an Astonishing $1 Trillion

Homeowner Equity Increases an Astonishing $1 Trillion | MyKCM

In a year that was financially devastating for many Americans, some good news for most homeowners is the dramatic gain in home equity over the last twelve months. Last week, CoreLogic released its 2020 3rd Quarter Homeowner Equity Insights report, which reveals four major findings:

  1. U.S. homeowners with mortgages have seen their equity increase by a total of $1 trillion since the third quarter of 2019.
  2. The average homeowner gained approximately $17,000 in equity over the past year.
  3. This is a 10.8% increase in equity over last year.
  4. The average household with a mortgage now has $194,000 in home equity.

This has given many homeowners the ability to redesign their homes to meet their changing needs. Frank Martell, President and CEO of CoreLogic, explains in the report:

“The housing market has remained a strong pillar in an otherwise tumultuous economic year. A sharp rise in demand, spurred by record-low interest rates, continues to bolster homeowner equity. And with many people now spending more time than ever before at home, some homeowners have tapped into their strengthening equity to fund renovations.”

This build-up in equity also gives more options to homeowners who have been financially impacted by the pandemic. Today, homeowners with substantial equity are in a much better position to work out a deal with their lender if they cannot pay their mortgage. Alternatively, they also have the power to sell and walk away with their equity in the form of cash or as a down payment toward a more affordable house. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, addresses the issue in the report:

"Over the past year, strong home price growth has created a record level of home equity for homeowners…This provides an important buffer to protect families if they experience financial difficulties and is one reason for the generational-low in foreclosure rates reported."

Here’s a map showing equity gains by state:Homeowner Equity Increases an Astonishing $1 Trillion | MyKCM

This gain in home equity is a blessing for homeowners in these trying times, and it seems that the next two years will continue to reward those who own a home.

Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) held their 2020 Real Estate Forecast SummitAt the summit, they shared the results of a recent survey of 23 economic and housing market experts. The median forecast among the experts called for home values to increase further by 8% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022.

Bottom Line

In a year that has many of us reevaluating what “home” really means, those who own their homes have been rewarded with a financial windfall that averages $17,000 individually and totals $1 trillion nationally.

If you would like to know how much the value of your Southeast Texas home has increased this year, let's visit.  I can prepare a professional market analysis on your home at no cost to you.  You can reach me on the blog, call or text.  

Sincerely,

Diane


Beaumont, Southeast Texas Home Prices Projected to Go Up

0.6 to 6.0% Appreciation Forecast

The economic forecast for the housing market predicts an increase in home prices over the next year.  The predictions range from 0.6%-6.0%.  In Southeast Texas we have seen a 2-4% appreciation in the housing market for the past few years.   

Where Are Home Values Headed Over the Next 12 Months?

Where Are Home Values Headed Over the Next 12 Months? | MyKCM

As shelter-in-place orders were implemented earlier this year, many questioned what the shutdown would mean to the real estate market. Specifically, there was concern about home values. After years of rising home prices, would 2020 be the year this appreciation trend would come to a screeching halt? Even worse, would home values begin to depreciate?

Original forecasts modeled this uncertainty, and they ranged anywhere from home values gaining 3% (Zelman & Associates) to home values depreciating by more than 6% (CoreLogic).

However, as the year unfolded, it became clear that there would be little negative impact on the housing market. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, recently revealed:

“The only major industry to display immunity to the economic impacts of the coronavirus is the housing market.”

Have prices continued to appreciate so far this year?

Last week, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its latest Home Price Index. The report showed home prices actually rose 6.5% from the same time last year. FHFA also noted that price appreciation accelerated to record levels over the summer months:

“Between May & July 2020, national prices increased by over 2%, which represents the largest two-month price increase observed since the start of the index in 1991.”

What are the experts forecasting for home prices going forward?

Below is a graph of home price projections for the next year. Since the market has changed dramatically over the last few months, this graph shows forecasts that have been published since September 1st.Where Are Home Values Headed Over the Next 12 Months? | MyKCM

In Southeast Texas

The numbers show that home values have risen each of the past three years.  In September 2018, the median price of a home was $145,000.  In September 2019, the median price was $164,000 and in August of 2020 the median price was $172,450.  *Data from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M.

The Take Away

Let’s connect if you want to know what your home is currently worth and how that may enable you to make a move this year.  With interest rates at historic lows you have more home buying power than ever before.  This might be the right time to upsize or downsize your current home.  

Sincerely,

Diane

Diane McNelis, Coldwell Banker Southern Homes


Southeast Texas Home Sales: Where Do We Go From Here?

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

No news is good news.  Well, here's some news that's not so good.  As a Real Estate Professional sometimes it's hard to know what to tell a seller who's home seems to be priced great but it still won't sell.  Right now the market doesn't want to "recover" but for all you would be home buyers out there, your going to kick yourself when prices go up and the chance of a lifetime has passed you by.

Want to talk about why this is the best time to buy a home in Southeast Texas?  Contact me.

 


Beaumont, Port Arthur and Lumberton Fair Better Than Most in Foreclosure Filings

I'm sure you've heard all the news talk about the problems "foreclosures" are causing in towns across the country.  People call the office daily requesting information on foreclosures.  Interesting thing in Southeast Texas, there really aren't that many homes in foreclosure.  Certainly not like parts of the United States.  Take a look at this chart. 

2010 foreclosures 

Now, don't be confused.  The longer the line the better shape a town is in.  Take the Lumberton, Texas housing market for example- one out of 6,333 homes had a foreclosure notice filed in 2010.  Orange County, Texas was not far behind with only one out of 4,338 homes receiving a foreclosure notice in 20io.  Beaumont, Texas had one out of every 940 homes receive a foreclosure notice but receiving a notice is different than having an actual foreclosure occur. 

Each month in Jefferson County somewhere around a hundred foreclosures notices are filed by lien holders but each month at the foreclosure auction less than 20% of those homes end up being sold at a foreclosure sale. 

Its not to say you can't find some good deals on foreclosed homes in Southeast Texas, but there aren't as many as one might think.  Its important to know what to look for in a foreclosure and how to negotiate with the lien holders.

A professional REALTOR can save you from making a big mistake.  Many of these homes are in need of repair.  If you are interested in finding out more about homes for sale in Beaumont, Lumberton or any part of Southeast Texas contact me.  My experience can save you money and help you find the best home for your family at the best price.


Southeast Texas Home Builders Optimistic?

Interior constructionNo official poll has been taken of the local Southeast Texas home builders, to the best of my knowledge, but according to this Wall Street Journal report the National Association of Home Builders, home builder confidence is the highest its been in three years. 

Daily Real Estate News  |  May 18, 2010  |   Share

Builder Confidence Hits Highest Level Since 2007
Home builder confidence reached 22 in May, the highest point since August 2007, on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.

This was the second consecutive month confidence was up, gaining 3 percentage points. Scores lower than 50 are still considered pessimistic.

Analysts said they were surprised by the increase because the home buyer tax credits expired at the end of April.

Weiss Research analyst Mike Larson said the tax credit provided some optimism, but the real driver behind the increase is a sense that the market is actually improving. “Even with the credit in the rear-view mirror, real, underlying demand remains for housing," Larson said.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Shara Tibken (05/17/2010)

Has the Southeast Texas Residential Housing Market Hit Bottom?

Dog&bootHere's an interesting little snippet from the CEO of Freddie Mac. 

Daily Real Estate News  |  January 27, 2010  |   Share

Freddie Mac CEO: Housing Is Near Bottom
The inventory of foreclosed houses still hampers the recovery of the housing sector, but overall, the U.S. housing market appears to be at or near bottom, Freddie Mac CEO Charles Haldeman told the Detroit Economic Club on Tuesday.

He predicted that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate would remain between 5 percent and 6 percent through 2010.

"The big downside risk to all this is a large wave of homes now in foreclosure potentially hitting the market at prices that are destructive," Haldeman said.

Source: Reuters News, Soyoung Kim (01/26/2010)

In Southeast Texas our foreclosure rates have remained relatively stable and don't comprise a big part of the residential housing market.  If foreclosures are the thing hampering the recovery across the nation, Southeast Texas should recover faster than the markets with higher foreclosure rates.  In a few more days we'll see how many homes sold in Jan. 2010.  What's your bet?  Have we hit bottom?  Let me know what you think. 


Southeast Texas Housing Outlook for 2010

Magnfying glassThursday, Dr. James P. Gaines, was in Beaumont talking about the residential housing market and what's in store for 2010.  If you have never heard of him, then a brief introduction is in order.  Dr. Gaines is a Research Economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M. 

"If you are a buyer or seller of real estate in Texas when Dr. Gaines talks you should listen."

The Beaumont Board of Realtors was fortunate enough to have him present his "Economic and Housing Outlook" for 2010 at the first quarter luncheon.  Now, if you already know if homes values are going up or down this year then there is no need to read any further. 

To give credit where it is deserved the following charts and graphs are from a power point presentation Dr. Gaines presented on Jan. 14, 2010.

First and foremost take a look at home sales in Texas:

Texas Home Sale_Dr G
The numbers are small but the trend is clear.  Home sales rose from 1990 to 2006.  Since the peak in 2006 they have fallen back to the levels seen in 2001-2003.

Second, here's the same trend shown in Southeast Texas:

Beaumont Home Sales_Dr G 
Southeast Texas home sales peaked in 2007.  They have fallen back to about the 2002-2003 levels. 

Third, this chart shows what was going on with median prices and inventory in 2008 and 2009.

Texas SFR Market_Dr G
There was a decline in sales.  Roughly, 9.5%.  There was a decline in the average and median price across the state.  The months supply of inventory remained the same.

Last but not least, take a look at the single family homes sales data for Southeast Texas.

Beaumont SFR Market_Dr G 
Year to date sales fell about 5% for the year in Beaumont.  The average price went down a smidgen.  Our median price actually went up.  One red flag that you don't want to overlook is the months supply of inventory increased to 9 months.  Hint: A six month supply is considered balanced and healthy by the Real Estate economists.  A nine month supply would indicate a buyers market and in a buyers market the pressure on home prices is downward.   

One statement Dr. Gaines made that stuck in my mind went something very close to this; "There has never been a better time to buy residential real estate and there will probably never be this same unique opportunity to buy real estate again in our lifetime." 

What really happens in 2010 remains to be seen but the outlook seems to say if you plan to buy a home do it soon or you may have missed a golden opportunity in the residential housing market. 




Southeast Texas Homeowners Check This Out

Houselogic

The National Association of Realtors has just launched HouseLogic.  You can check it out during the Beta Test.  The big advertising push to consumers will be in February. 

The new website will help homeowners with home improvements, home maintainence projects, and provide consumers with information about taxes, incentives and home financing. 

Check it out!  Tell your friends you saw it first on setexasrealestatetalk.com. 

Let me know what you think.


 


The Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act Offers Help to Southeast Texas Home Buyers

Ark cartoonYou haven't missed the ship yet!

It is no secret the economy has seen better times.  It is no secret that the U.S. Government has been trying to help keep it afloat. 

For homeowners who want to move up and want-to-be homeowners trying to buy a first home consider this your life raft. 

Say "Hello" to the, The Worker, Homeownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009.  The law went into effect on November 6, 2009 and in a nut shell it extends the first-time homebuyer credit for five months and allows an eligible move-up buyer to sell their home, buy a new one and receive up to a $6,500 credit. 

Details can be found at The IRS.gov website.  Just want the cliff notes, then here you go:

  • Purchase deadline extended to April 30, 2010
  • Maximum credit for a first-time home buyer is $8,000
  • "Long-time resident" buyers can receive up to $6,500.  To qualify a buyer must have owned and used the same home as a primary residence for at least five consecutive years of the eight-year period ending on the date of the purchase of a new home as a primary residence. 
  • You have the option of claiming the credit on your 2009 or 2010 tax returns.

Its a great opportunity to move-in or move-up to a new home.  Once the economy is running smoothly again you can bet the homebuyer tax credits will be gone for good.  Don't get left behind. Jump on board this ship before it has sailed.